Ray Dalio lays out his vision of changing world orders, a system of operating that could shed light on these turbulent, uncertain and somewhat confusing times.
According to Ray Dalio’s view, world orders including monetary, domestic political and geopolitical world orders that defined the post WW2 period are currently all in a transition period.
He believes the post-transition period typically occurs after a global war.
The last standing superpower then imposes its global rules defining the coming century’s new world order.
The superpowers are playing for all the marbles, global hegemony, and how this extremely dangerous and volatile period unfolds is unknown.
“According to Ray Dalio’s view, world orders including monetary, domestic political and geopolitical world orders that defined the post WW2 period are currently all in a transition period”
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Everything has a breaking point, including a superpower. The Cold War period ended with the dissolution of the Soviet Union in December 1991.
Could the tables turn and we see the dissolution of the US in the 2020s or the dissolution of Russia again, or will it end in another global war?
“It typically ends with great conflicts, either global or civil war changing the world order,” said Ray Dalio.
“Five forces drive those orders over time, such as debt, internal political order, geopolitical order, climate change and acts of nature and technology innovation,” he added.
Ray Dalio lays out his vision of a golden million population riding high on AI and robotisation but leaving most disenfranchised and alienated from opportunities
“In a country of 330 million people one percent, 3 million people are responsible for most of the changes. They are the ones who go to the great universities and are innovators and make the unicorns and so on.
The top 10% are those around them who do well next 30% are doing okay, and the bottom 60% have a reading level below sixth grade and are not productive,” he said.
“It typically ends with great conflicts, either global or civil war changing the world order”
RAY DALIO
Ray Dalio lays out his vision of where he sees tech stocks priced
“It looks very much like 1999 during that digital revolution. It is better to buy a bad company at a cheap price than buy stock in a great company at an expensive price,” he said.
He believes the imbalances with treasury bonds create higher interest rates, weighing on stock prices.
“Tariffs will cause conflict between countries, which will have consequences” – Ray Dalio
How to resolve the debt crisis, Ray Dalio lays out his vision
“There may be a restructuring of the debt, and or political pressures of countries to buy the debt, there may be cutting the payment to some creditor countries off for political reasons, there may be the monetization of debt,” he said.
Regarding DOGE, he acknowledges terrible waste in government.
“60% of the population is unproductive and living on welfare,” and he said, “They need to get to 3% of GDP otherwise we are going to have a problem,”
Reducing the debt will lower interest rates, which is why he thinks a recession can be avoided.
Ray Dalio sees tariffs as a replay in history.
During the 1930s rise of nationalism and protectionism in Germany, tariffs raised revenue.
“Tariffs will cause conflict between countries, which will have consequences,” he said.
“Neutral countries do extremely well during these times, as they get people and capital flowing in,” he said.
Regarding technology he said China trails the US chip development but leads in manufacturing chips at lower costs.
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