Jeffrey Gundlach Offers His Latest Insights

Jeffrey Gundlach offers his latest insights into an array of market issues, from the price trajectory of gold to interest rates and the probability of a recession.

Jeffrey Gundlach also discussed the performance of US stocks relative to Europe.

Gundlach, CEO and founder of Doubleline, with 91.2 billion USD of assets under management in 2024, walks shoulder to shoulder amongst titan bond investors.

When Jeffrey Gundlach offers his latest insights, investors and speculators alike listen keenly

In his latest posting entitled, Gundlach Macro Outlook: Not in My Neighborhood, posted March 11, 2025, with an eerie image of a war-torn neighbourhood, he noted a disturbing trend of federal deficits expanding annually.

“Those deficits now have driven the amount of Treasury issuance in the last year to match the extraordinary amounts of buying during the COVID-19 lockdowns,” he said.

“Those deficits now have driven the amount of Treasury issuance in the last year to match the extraordinary amounts of buying during the COVID-19 lockdowns”

RAY DALIO

Joining the dots, could massive debt restructuring of the century under the backdrop of a global war be unfolding?

Is Jeffrey Gundlach’s cryptic post showing a war-ravaged neighbour with the title, Not In My Neighbourhood a mind’s eye into the future?

Hoping for the best that the latest Ukraine-Russian peace accord succeeds but expecting the worst could also be wise.

If peace in Europe is on the cards, why are institutional gold investors frantically sending the precious yellow metal an ocean away from Europe to the US?

More than 600 tons, or almost 20 million ounces of gold, has been transported into vaults in New York City since December last year, according to data provided by the World Gold Council.

This unprecedented scale of gold outflows from Europe to the US could indicate that institutional investors, the so-called smart money, know something we do not.

“If peace in Europe is on the cards, why are institutional gold investors frantically sending the precious yellow metal an ocean away from Europe to the US”

RAY DALIO

Jeffrey Gundlach offers his latest insights into the gold prices

“Gold continues its bull market that we’ve been talking about for a couple of years ever since gold was down to $1,800,” he said.

The shiny yellow metal this month, March, made the milestone price of 3,000 USD an ounce.

The ongoing debasement of currencies increases the price of everything when measured against fiat currencies.

The rising price of assets combined with the soaring price of necessities is partly due to the reduced purchasing power of fiat currency. So when you measure everything against gold or Bitcoin prices are not going higher, they could even be falling.

But what is spooky about gold rallying during financial turbulence and wars is that the shiny yellow metal, since time immemorial, has been the ultimate rat hole for investors to hide in precarious times.

“Jeffrey Gundlach has been a gold bull for a while, and he now thinks the yellow metal will get to $4,000” – Wealth Training Company

In other words, the rising price of gold driven by investor demand is a sign investors are sheltering against geopolitical uncertainties and a pending financial calamity.

“I’d be bold to say that I think gold will make it to $4,000.

I’m not sure that’ll happen this year, but I feel like that’s the measured move anticipated by the long consolidation at around $1,800 on gold,” said Jeffrey Gundlach.

So Jeffrey Gundlach, nicknamed Bond King, does not talk about a treasury bond rally despite the 10-year treasury yield providing above 4%.

Think about it. Gold provides zero passive income, no dividends, no yields, no rent and no interest on deposit accounts, yet the Bond King sees the gold rally continuing. The perceived fear of bank failures and a dollar current debasement is greater than the current yields on treasuries and interest on deposit accounts. Geopolitical tensions are so elevated that institutional investors have moved their physical gold from one continent to another.

Jeffrey Gundlach has been a gold bull for a while, and he now thinks the yellow metal will get to $4,000.

He noted that central bank purchases of gold have increased at a “very sharp, steep trajectory, and I don’t expect this to stop,” he said.

Jeffrey Gundlach offers his latest insights, as gold’s store of value independent of the fiat debt monetary system

“I think that that’s in recognition of gold as a storehouse of value that’s more outside of the financial system, which seems to be in a state of flux, in this period in time,” he added.

“So if you bought Europe versus the US in 2021, it was painful for a couple of years from 2023 to 2025, but now it’s got a lot of momentum”
– Wealth Training Company

European versus US stocks, Jeffrey Gundlach offers his latest insights

Gundlach said he also hasn’t been surprised that European stocks are starting to outperform the US now that there’s a downtrend in the dollar.

Gundlach’s DoubleLine first started investing in Europe around 2021.

We were cynical at the time, doubting how European stocks could outperform in light of the worst war on the continent since WW2, leading to disruption to energy supplies, with the north stream pipe explosion and the ongoing deindustrialisation of Germany, Europe’s industrial motor.

Ukraine, known as Europe’s breadbasket with the world’s most fertile farmlands, has also contributed to sharp food inflation in Europe.

“So if you bought Europe versus the US in 2021, it was painful for a couple of years from 2023 to 2025, but now it’s got a lot of momentum,” he said.

That is primarily due to European governments repatriating sovereign funds to finance military spending in a potentially wider war.

Jeffrey Gundlach offers his latest insights into The Magnificent Seven

He previously said the valuation of these seven stocks is vulnerable, which he said is now apparent following last month’s stock correction.

Jeffrey Gundlach is a long-time advocate of the US government cutting its public deficit.

“I’m quite in favour of that happening because it is the only way that we can try to get our fiscal house in order,” he said, commenting on DOGE.

US recession probability, Jeffrey Gundlach offers his latest insights

He estimates a 60% chance of a recession in 2025, which is higher than most Wall Street banks.

Gundlach noted the bond market has been pricing in and out Fed rate cuts. “So it has been a roller-coaster ride of about one cut down to about eight cuts and then back to one cut, and now it is back to more cuts.

So this continues to gyrate,” said Jeffrey Gundlach.